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Are you taking the Coronavirus serious at your church?
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Post UncleJD
Dave Dorsey wrote:
The death rate is likely to decrease as testing improves. I think it could go as low as 1%, would you agree with that?


that's what I've been trying to convey, Dave. Sorry if I didn't make it clear. Testing has not been good, and again, most people don't likely go in for testing as its just a slight cough.
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3/11/20 4:36 pm


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Post Dave Dorsey
UncleJD wrote:
that's what I've been trying to convey, Dave. Sorry if I didn't make it clear. Testing has not been good, and again, most people don't likely go in for testing as its just a slight cough.

Sure, that makes sense. So you'd feel comfortable saying a 1% death rate seems like a good guess for where we might end up?
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3/11/20 4:37 pm


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Post UncleJD
Dave Dorsey wrote:
UncleJD wrote:
that's what I've been trying to convey, Dave. Sorry if I didn't make it clear. Testing has not been good, and again, most people don't likely go in for testing as its just a slight cough.

Sure, that makes sense. So you'd feel comfortable saying a 1% death rate seems like a good guess for where we might end up?


No, I honestly think there have been over a million infected. I know several people who traveled this winter and came back with a nasty bug where they had severe respiriatory issues (coworkers who went on a trip to Spain). Their doctors told them it was "just a bug that's going around". So a million to 4000 ratio is 0.4% But I'd be guessing. I can only say that I think its not NEARLY as bad as they are making out.
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3/11/20 4:51 pm


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Post Dave Dorsey
Okay. That's still 4x seasonal flu and well within the original range Shaun gave. [Insert Acts Pun Here]
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3/11/20 5:11 pm


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Post UncleJD
Dave Dorsey wrote:
Okay. That's still 4x seasonal flu and well within the original range Shaun gave.


but 10x sounds a lot scarier right? And 4x is a stretch since the flu VARIES from year to year from .1 to .4% so its right in line. And that's if C-19 is ONLY a million, there are usually 10s to 100s of millions of flu cases per year in a 4 month period. We just AREN'T seeing those kind of numbers.
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3/11/20 6:05 pm


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Post Dave Dorsey
Give it two weeks. [Insert Acts Pun Here]
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3/11/20 6:35 pm


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Post shaunbwilson
UncleJD wrote:
Math is math and you can do it...


UncleJD wrote:
I gave you a chart which shows exactly what the 4% is coming from...


Yo, dawg, I heard you like maths and charts. So here are some maths and charts to show why the fatality rate is between 0.5% and 5%.

Quote:
This is what you can conclude:
  • Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
    Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
  • Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.


UncleJD wrote:
This panic is 100% HYPE.


Who said panic? Preparation ≠ panic. I haven't encouraged anyone to panic. I have encouraged people to be informed about what is coming and prepare accordingly.

Approximately 80% of the infected in China are/were low-symptom or asymptomatic. For them, this is/was like the mild flu. My point in all of my posts has not been to panic but to self-quarantine—particularly from church where there are often people in high risk demographics—if you suspect you might have COVID-19. That is a measured response.

For approximately 14% of the infected in China, this is/was severe and required hospitalization but did not require critical care. I won't try to speak for you, but I try to avoid hospitalization when it's prudent. For instance, if I'm doing a job that OSHA says requires PPE, I wear my PPE. I don't drive heavy machinery when taking medication. I don't try to jump my bike over 20 busses. These are prudent things I can do to avoid hospitalization, and I do them because the reward of someone seeing me do a sick jump on my bike does not outweigh the risk of hospitalization. Likewise, those who are in the high-risk category can limit their risk of hospitalization by avoiding infection, and those who are low-responders can avoid giving it to someone who might be hospitalized by simply staying home if they are sick. Simple. Easy. No panic involved.

In China, about 5% of the infected were in critical care. Here is what it looks like to receive critical care when you are infected with COVID-19:



This is what 5% of those who become infected experience.

If staying home from church for a weekend prevents even one person in my church community from having a 5% chance that they will need to receive critical care for COVID-19, that is worth it to me. This is not panic; this is love for my brothers and sisters. Simple. Easy. No panic involved.

Let's say that COVID-19 has a 0.01% risk of death. That makes the flu ten times deadlier than COVID-19. Instead of 5% of the population needing critical care, they "only" need to be hospitalized. They get to lay around for a few days, enjoy some Jell-o, and start thinking about how they will pay their medical bills. But I still wouldn't want some 30-year-old dad who isn't too worried about his mild cold to go to church where COVID-19 can be aerosolized, spread to a distance of up to 15 feet, and hang around in the air for up to 30 minutes while my mom walks through that cloud of the virus that was spread by a quick, dry barely-a-cough that the guy doesn't even remember happened.

And frankly, I'm not crazy about my mom being out and about while this is floating around. Not because I think she will die, but because she is at high risk to become infected, and 1 out of every 5 of the infected require hospitalization. China, Italy, and France have all run out of hospital beds because they did not delay the spread of infection, so even a "mild" illness that requires hospitalization is not going to be very fun for anyone. Here is a first-hand account from Italy:



So, why not do just a little extra to try to 1) not catch it and 2) not spread it? That seems prudent. Simple. Easy. No panic involved.

Not panicked; just prepared.

PS - I stay home from church when I have the flu, too, and encourage others to do the same.
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3/12/20 9:44 am


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Post UncleJD
-2000 on the DOW is panic. this is all panic. you're right, it should be treated the same as any bad flu outbreak. Its not being treated that way though. And statements like "its 10 times worse than the flu" are irresponsible and part of the panic trigger. We STILL do not know how many people have actually been infected so there is no way to put an accurate ratio like "10 times". I'm not insensitive to those getting this, and I certainly don't want my vulnerable loved-ones to be exposed to it. But there is a big difference in "caution" and "panic". We all need to tone down the rhetoric and fear talk. (like posting something from Italy scaring the mess out of people that there aren't enough hospital beds). You might as well just say "we're all going to die" and get it over with. Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere
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3/12/20 10:39 am


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Post Dave Dorsey
UncleJD, the only person causing harm here is you. There is absolutely no harm in encouraging churches, many of whom have elderly populations, to be sure they are following the guidance being published by the government and especially the Vice President's task force.

You are welcome to your views, but those views are at odds with the common sense guidance being published and followed by virtually everyone in the world. The NBA did not cancel its season and jettison tens of millions of dollars into the sun for something that's no worse than the flu.

You are dangerously misinformed, and that's fine, but you shouldn't be trying to convince others that it's no big deal and they should listen to you and not literally every health authority on the planet. You are risking harm to the elderly population of any church with a pastor who listens to you.
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3/12/20 11:27 am


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Post UncleJD
Dave Dorsey wrote:
UncleJD, the only person causing harm here is you. There is absolutely no harm in encouraging churches, many of whom have elderly populations, to be sure they are following the guidance being published by the government and especially the Vice President's task force.

You are welcome to your views, but those views are at odds with the common sense guidance being published and followed by virtually everyone in the world. The NBA did not cancel its season and jettison tens of millions of dollars into the sun for something that's no worse than the flu.

You are dangerously misinformed, and that's fine, but you shouldn't be trying to convince others that it's no big deal and they should listen to you and not literally every health authority on the planet. You are risking harm to the elderly population of any church with a pastor who listens to you.




Are you seriously saying that by calming down I'm causing harm? Ok fine. We're all going to die, is 100 times worse than anything. Hoard everything you can. Have fun, I'm done.
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3/12/20 12:12 pm


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Post Guy from Liberty Square Church (Cartersville, GA) has it. Aaron Scott
He sang in the choir on one day, and was sick enough to go to the hospital the next day. Hon. Dr. in Acts-celeratology
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3/12/20 2:22 pm


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