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UncleJD

Tonight's results mean a contested/brokered convention

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **3/15/16 9:31 pm**

The math I'm hearing says Trump now has to get around 60% of the remaining delegates to win (I guess we'll know for sure after they are tallied tomorrow), that seems nearly impossible, especially with Kasich staying in which is also going to prevent Cruz from getting it as well.

So, IF this goes to a brokered convention, what outcome will you support?

A vote that forces the delegates to pick a candidate by plurality?
A vote that forces the delegates to pick a candidate by majority?
A non finalist nominated by party officials?

Personally, I think there ought to be a true majority picked from the final 3 left in the race. And yes, if Trump wins there, I would consider voting for him assuming he had to make some promises and chooses a strong conservative running-mate, but I'd love to see a Cruz/Kasich ticket, my second choice would be a Kasich/Cruz ticket, third choice (I guess) would be a Trump/Cruz ticket.

UncleJD

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **3/16/16 8:31 am**

After last night, there are 946 delegates left
Trump is at around 650 so he needs 587 which is 62% of remaining delegates
Cruz is around 430 so he needs 807 which is 85% of the remaining
Kasich is around 145 so he needs 1092 which is 115% of the remaining delegates

As you can see with 3 still in the race its now virtually impossible for anyone to win (certainly impossible for Kasich who is now clearly in it for a chance at a brokered nomination).

The only way Trump can win is to basically double his performance over the first half of this race.

I realize that may of the remaining states are winner-take-all, and that would seem to favor Trump, but most of those are closed-primaries, meaning you have to be a Republican voter from previous elections or registered early in the year (depending on the state), and those have not been Trump's strongest states other than Florida (take Rubio out of the mix there and Cruz may have won). So while its possible, it doesn't seem likely that he will make the 1237 at this point.

Cruz would need a miracle.

Kasich thinks he's going to get the nomination at the convention, I think he's ticking off the Trump and Cruz delegates and they will see him as the reason they have to go through this in the first place. We'll see. I think this is going to come between Trump and Cruz at the convention and I hope that by now the "establishment" has seen the writing on the wall and know they are doomed if they try anything underhanded.